Population Dynamics under Environmental Challenges in Serbia

One of the biggest challenges Serbia is facing is demographic in its nature, and it stems from negative trends in population dynamics in the past several decades. Estimates suggest that the Serbian population has decreased by more than 600 000 in the last decade due to a negative natural and migration balance. Apart from socioeconomic and cultural-psychological factors that shape the demographic changes, it is reasonable to assume that population dynamics beings are affected by climate change, especially in terms of rising average temperatures which cause the appearance of various climatic and weather extremes, as well as by air pollution. Such environmental challenges act through socioeconomic mechanisms, such as changes in livelihoods, agricultural production, land use, economic conditions, health, quality of life and wellbeing. Proposed work will be the first study in Serbia that seeks to explain how and through which mechanisms environmental challenges influence the three components of population dynamics - fertility, mortality and migration, and, in accordance with this knowledge, to create population projections (scenarios) that consider the impact of environmental changes. The innovativeness of the methodological approach lies in the use and combination of demographic, socioeconomic and environmental data from different sources at the individual, regional and national level. In order to examine causal pathways, we will use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), which allows to distinguish between direct and indirect effects of environmental challenges on population dynamics. Results will help to environmentally-wise identify the most sensitive area and demographic groups, which is important for public policy planning in the long run. If environmental challenges indeed influence fertility, mortality and migration, the population forecast and population policy have to be adjusted to the climate and pollution feedback.